Summary: There are hundreds of articles written each year about Australian residents struggling with high and escalating electricity bills, but virtually all of these articles exclude the critical facts - apparently it's just too hard to document and explain these costs, why they really vary so significantly, and what can be done to minimise them. In this post, I will provide the key facts and guidance you need to know in choosing the reliably-cheapest electricity provider over the medium term. In another post I will discuss ways to minimise energy use.
Our Situation: I check the Victorian government website SwitchOn each January (when electricity prices change) to ensure I am on the cheapest plan available (If I switch, I take advantage of switching offers.). I have also identified the reliably cheapest provider in my area that doesn't ripoff customers (Momentum Energy) and take advantage of the ability to lock in 3 year contracts which limit retail increases. When our first 3 year contract ended, the new 3 year contract offered by Momentum was a special low-rate plan. We pay among the lowest rates for electricity of anyone in Australia. We take advantage of pay on time and direct debit discounts when available. We use "refer a friend" offers where available. Momentum Energy has a standing $50 offer (for referrer and friend). At minimum you can get $50 by using my referral code (54825286) on the referral page.
Gain: ~$200 to $400 a year in savings for the same electricity usage.

Flickr CCby2.0 - Uwe Potthoff
I'll collate the summary guidance up top. Some of this is only applicable to Melbourne and Victoria but other advice applies regardless of where you live.
Momentum Energy is typically the reliably-cheapest, trustworthy provider of electricity in Victoria. However, some other providers (Powershop, People Energy) offering significant pay on time discounts may be cheaper for those with higher usage.
If there is a "pay on time" or direct debit discount available from your selected provider make sure you utilise it. These discounts are often considerable and are automated if you sign up for direct debit. Not all pay on time discounts are equal, the best ones discount the entire bill while most others only discount the much lower usage charge (before GST).
State government owned providers (Momentum is owned by the Tasmanian government) are typically prevented from ripoff charges and billing practices (inflated estimates, overcharging) so should be preferred over for-profit companies with reputations for ripoffs (especially Energy Australia, Origin and AGL).
Providers with large hydropower sources are typically the cheapest (in Victoria, Momentum and Red Energy are the main hydropower providers).
Do not bother with more expensive "green power" plans as the Renewable Energy Target and fact that your energy comes from a national market means they are pretty ineffective. If looking to take extra steps to be green, focus on energy reduction and efficiency. In Victoria, this includes consumer opportunities under the Victorian Energy Efficiency Target (VEET)
Lock in the longest term contract you can if fixing retail price changes and the offered rates are competitive as this will protect you from major increases. Even if you rent you can sign a 36 month contract and it will cost at most $20 to break - possibly there will be no charge if forced to break.
Simplifiers who use little energy should prioritise a provider and plan with the lowest daily supply rates (these vary massively). The daily supply rate matters much more to those who use little energy than the usage rates.
If you have a smart meter and can opt for a time-of-use (TOU) tariff, evaluate this carefully against the "anytime" tariff - the "anytime" tariffs will be reliably cheaper overall for low electricity consumers as TOU tariffs tend to have much higher Daily Supply Charges (see my estimates below). However, if your usage is unavoidably high and you can switch more of it outside of peak times then TOU tariffs are worthwhile.
If you can save a lot on hot water, heating and cooking by using gas then this may be worthwhile. But gas prices have increased more than electricity recently and this is now unlikely for the main options like using gas heating instead of a reverse cycle airconditioner. If making minimal use of gas and it's feasible (e.g. to put in an induction cooktop) you will save by switching to using electricity only as the savings on the gas supply charges will outweigh any minimal usage cost differences.
Make sure you know every time your rates change and compare them against other providers. When rates change (typically January each year), some providers can increase them massively over their introductory offers or from one year to the next. Switching is very easy, you simply need to call up the new provider and request it. If your current provider is trustworthy (no ripoffs) then you can also try using better rates elsewhere to seek a better deal from your current provider (Ask to speak to the customer retention team). Even if you are getting a good deal and service from your current provider, it doesn't hurt to call them occasionally to find out if there are any better offers available - don't take their word for it though ("switch to our new plan, it's better!") just get the facts and do your own calculations.
Be cautious about providers that do not provide fixed usage rates or rate certainty but claim to be cheaper. You should use your usage to compare your annual costs with a cheap fixed rate provider like Momentum Energy. You may find the certainty of 12 month fixed usage rates to be better than unfixed but slightly cheaper rates. Currently, Powershop is the main provider of flexible rates in Victoria and the rate fluctuations can be significant.
In general, avoid providers that make it complex for you to reliably obtain their cheapest rates (various conditions, requirements, effort, luck). Powershop provides 30% discounts but only if you do the work each month to check their online shop and obtain this discount - it is trying an interesting model that gives consumers more choice but also requires much more overhead on their part. If you don't do this monthly work, you'll pay at least 12% more than those getting the 30% discount. So Powershop can be the cheapest provider if taking optimal advantage of all of its discounts (requiring ongoing user action) but you need to factor in whether you have the time and inclination to do so.
For providers that have significant subsidies/discounts for some users either exploit the discount fully or don't use that provider (one set of users is subsidising the other set). For example, Powershop provides $75 for each referral. This is hugely advantageous if you leverage this a lot yourself but you will be subsidising others if you don't. In general, I'm opposed to these arrangements as savvy consumers are subsidised heavily by less savvy consumers (typically less well off).
Only use government comparison sites (Energy Made Easy, Your Choice, Switch On) rather than the private ones (iSelect, etc). However, read the fine print on the discounts being used in these calculations to check if you will actually reliably and continuously obtain them. Simple, regular low rates (which don't require high discounts to be competitive) are far better in the long run than large or complicated discounts as these almost always disappear, or are harder to obtain, for existing customers.
When switching look out for switching bonuses like $50-$100 EFTPOS cards such as Momentum's gas switching offer ($100 before 31 March 2015). Refer a friend offers are also available, often permanently. Momentum Energy has a standing $50 offer (for referrer and friend). At minimum you can get $50 by using my referral code (54825286) on the referral page.
Understand the basics about the energy supply market. For example, everyone should know by now that Standing Offer contracts are always more expensive than Market Offer contracts and no one should still be on a Standing Offer contract.
Don't rely on the state government, federal government or public agencies to keep energy costs down. These governments and agencies abysmal policy and regulation is behind much of the escalating costs and this factor will continue even as demand falls in response to the price increases. As just one example, see this article on the gold plating of the network. The "death spiral" between falling demand and household solar will continue meaning Daily Supply Charges will continue to increase for all consumers. Simplifiers with low energy use will have to be even more assiduous about seeking the lowest fixed cost providers.
Our household's 2014 electricity usage and bills:



Energy Provider: Momentum Energy
Plan: SmilePower Plan. GD Tariff (Anytime)
Contract: Commenced on 11/07/2012 with 36 month contract fixing retail prices but not CPI and energy market (network and government regulated) charges.
Distribution Network: Citipower
2014 Daily Charge Rate (inc GST): 76.41458 cents/day
2014 Peak Step 1 - 1st 340 kWh/month (inc GST): 19.55404 cents/kWh
2014 Peak Step 2 - Balance over 340kWh/month (inc GST): ~21 cents/kWh (never exceeded)
These are the initial rates I signed up to in July 2012 with a 36 month contract:

Momentum Rates July 2012: Citipower Residential - GD Anytime
These are Momentum's equivalent rates if I was signing up in Feb 2015 (with or without a SmilePower contract). Note the significant increase in the Daily Supply Charge (70.2 cents to 108.7 cents).

What about Smart Meters and opting for Flexible Pricing? ("Time Of Use" tariffs)
I entered in my usage of around 1582kWh into Switch On to compare Momentum's flat rate ("anytime") tariff against its "time of use" tariffs - market offer and standing offers (standing offers are old ripoff plans used by people who haven't switched plans since 2001, so I'll ignore it). For the TOU market offer, the Daily Supply Charge is 132.94 cents/day (inc GST) which compares against 108.72 cents/day for its Feb 2015 "anytime" tariff and 81.08 cents/day for my 3 year old SmilePower contract. See the next section for my comparison of TOU plans to "anytime" plans.


Comparison of estimated 2015 costs for existing fixed 3yr contract "anytime" prices vs current "anytime" prices vs current "time of use" prices
Below I've used my 2014 usage to compare the total estimated costs for 2015 of my existing 3 year SmilePower contract "anytime" prices versus the SmilePower "anytime" prices and "time of use" (TOU) prices available in Feb 2015. It's clear that the elevated TOU Daily Supply Charges make these plans useless for low energy consumers like our household. I expect my total 2015 bill on my current "anytime" tariff to be around $635 and just the Daily Supply Charge annual total will come to $485 on the TOU tariff. A brief review of other provider's TOU tariffs also show very high Daily Supply Charges. I'm not sure why this is and whether using smart meters (which already inflated everyone's bills in the compulsory Victorian rollout) for TOU tariffs costs the providers significantly more, but clearly these elevated TOU Daily Supply Charges make TOU tariffs pointless except for the larger users of electricity.

Use a government comparison site and accurate usage and input numbers to compare provider offers
In Victoria, the government site Switch On provides guidance as to the most competitive providers for your type of usage. I entered my 2014 annual usage and Jan 2015 data to get the following comparison table (it seems our 2015 usage will drop slightly from 1582kWh to 1560kWh). As you can see below, my current tariff (3 year contract started in 2012) provides much cheaper prices than any competitor. It's reassuring to see that the current vs 2012 Momentum SmilePower comparison I provided above is validated by the Switch On calculations.

What's the cheapest annual cost for the average two person household?
According to Momentum Energy's notes on my bills, the average two person household uses 14.8kWh/day in both summer and winter. This translates to an annual usage of 5400kWh. Using Switch On this produces the estimated annual costs below (from $1,350 to $2,350). Even if you don't have gas, this is an unnecessarily high amount of electricity consumption for two people (over 300% higher than our household).

For accurate comparisions, you'd want to take into account the household size, location (air conditioning is needed in the hotter areas), occupancy levels (e.g. weekday daytime usage) and whether they have electricity only or electricity and gas (like us). However, I haven't found a good source for accurate comparisons. There are two sources of simple comparisons: (a) Your electricity bill which indicates average use in each season based on household size; (b) Websites that use your postcode and cross-provider data. Below I've used Energy Made Easy > Understand and compare your electricity usage to compare our household with others in Fitzroy North:

Which providers consistently have the lowest and most stable market offer prices?
The Your Choice website provides an annual update for each distributor zone. For the Citipower zone I am in the range of provider standard market prices from 2011-2013 can be seen below. It's clear that Momentum Energy is reliably the cheapest and also the most stable.

Source: Your Choice > News > Feb 2013 Electricity Price Update
How much can you save by switching to a better provider and offer? Where can I get the best, updated research to inform my decisions?
Gavin Dufty from the St Vincent de Paul Society provides the best independent analysis and updates it every year. Here are some key excerpts from his Jan 2015 report: Victorian Energy Prices, January 2015 (pdf)
Households with typical electricity consumption (4800kWh) can save up to $500-$800 per annum (depending on their network area) if switching from the worst standing offer to the best market offer.



Which providers should I avoid due to their history of deliberate overcharging, misleading information or unethical customer acquisition/retention?
I'll update this list as I obtain more information but definitely avoid Energy Australia (previously TruEnergy), Origin, AGL, Simply Energy, Powerdirect and Neighbourhood Energy. Others (e.g. Dodo) may have generally poorer customer service and reliability (meter reading). See: Product Review: Energy Providers for recent reviews from customers of any provider you are considering.
How can I find comparative information on provider's green credentials?
Greenpeace has a recent guide on Australian retailers in all states: Greenpeace: The Green Electricity Guide
How much do Distributor (network) costs vary and what proportion of bills do they typically constitute? (CitiPower, Powercor, Jemena, AusNet, United Energy)
I was surprised to learn how much distributor network costs can vary between the Distributor geographic areas. These distributor costs are regulated by the Australian Energy Regulator (AER). They are passed on by all retailers for your premises so you can't escape them. See: AER: Approval of Victorian network tariffs for 2015
Given the significant potential variance in these distributor costs, it is worth factoring this into your choice of where to live, especially if you have multiple options across distributor boundaries (e.g. in the same suburb, one rental option on CitiPower and the other on Jemena). Neighbours on different sides of the street with the exact same energy use and retailer plan could have annual electricity bills that vary by a few hundred dollars due to these distributor cost differences.
For example, below are Momentum's identical retail market offers for the CitiPower and Jemena networks:
See: Momentum Energy: Electricity and Gas RatesFor my very low annual electricity usage of 1582kWh, the comparison is:
CitiPower: 1582 * 17.919 + 365 * 108.724 = $640.32
Jemena: 1582 * 21.296 + 365 * 130.328 = $812.60
This is a difference of over $170 purely due to distributor network costs. For households with higher consumption the difference could be $200 to $400.
Related Links:
Momentum Energy
> Base Electricity Rates
> SmilePower
> Reasons to switch
Canstar Blue: Compare Victorian Electricity Providers
Product Review: Energy Providers
Your Choice
> Flexible pricing information
> How to reduce your energy bill
Switch On
Energy Made Easy
> FAQ
> Tariffs and fees explained
St Vincent de Paul Society
> Energy Reports
Business Spectator
> Energy retailers hiking fixed charges forcing Vic Govt to act
> New report finds gas is uneconomic at home
> A power company's worst nightmare
The Monthly
> Power corrupts (Jess Hill)

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